Home values fell again in October, but regional markets are holding up far better than the capitals. Here's what the latest Cotality data shows for our regional towns, and what it means for buyers.
| Area | Median value | 12-month change | 5% Deposit Scheme cap | Typical home under cap? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dubbo (NSW) | $580,697 | +11.7% | $800,000 | Yes |
| Wagga Wagga (NSW) | $632,594 | +10.5% | $800,000 | Yes |
| Latrobe Valley (VIC) | $502,004 | +7.6% | $650,000 | Yes |
| Shepparton (VIC) | $560,115 | +5.7% | $650,000 | Yes |
| Bendigo (VIC) | $652,102 | +4.6% | $650,000 | Above cap |
| Ballarat (VIC) | $628,253 | +4.3% | $650,000 | Yes |
Cotality SA3 regions, dwellings, October 2026. Albury and Tamworth–Gunnedah weren't among Cotality's published top regional markets this month; see their town pages for the latest available figures. Help to Buy caps are the same as the 5% Deposit Scheme caps in these areas.
| Market | October | 12 months | Median value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Combined capitals | -1.4% | -4.8% | $954,905 |
| Combined regional | -0.7% | +3.4% | $752,960 |
| Regional NSW | -0.7% | +1.4% | $820,786 |
| Regional Victoria | -0.6% | +2.1% | $627,370 |
| Sydney | -1.6% | -9.4% | $1,178,959 |
| Melbourne | -0.8% | -7.6% | $773,027 |
| National | -1.2% | -2.8% | $884,855 |
Capital city values have dropped 8.1% in seven months, which Cotality says is the fastest pace of decline in the past 40 years. Regional markets have softened too, but much more gently, and most of our regional towns are still well above where they were a year ago.
With rates higher and values easing, it's a good time to review your loan. Check whether your rate is still competitive with our refinance calculator, and consider whether an offset account or a split could help. See also should you refinance?
Slightly. Cotality's combined regional index fell 0.7% in October 2026, but regional values were still 3.4% higher than a year earlier. Capital city values fell 1.4% in the month and are 4.8% lower over the year.
In regional NSW, Dubbo led with 11.7% annual growth (median $580,697), followed by the Lower Murray and Armidale, with Wagga Wagga up 10.5% (median $632,594). In regional Victoria, Glenelg–Southern Grampians (7.9%) and the Latrobe Valley (7.6%) led.
Conditions have shifted towards buyers. Cotality reports the median time on market at 39 days, the highest since August 2020, and vendor discounting at 4.7%, the largest since May 2019, with capital city listings at their highest level for this time of year since 2019.
Higher rates reduce how much lenders will lend because repayments are assessed at a higher rate. Cotality estimates that one more rate rise would mean borrowing capacity has fallen by around 11.5% through this rate-hiking cycle. Checking your borrowing power before you look gives you a realistic budget.
Yes, if you're eligible. Typical values in Dubbo, Wagga Wagga, the Latrobe Valley, Shepparton and Ballarat sit under the 5% Deposit Scheme and Help to Buy price caps for those areas, so eligible first home buyers may be able to buy with a 2–5% deposit and no LMI.
We help buyers across regional NSW and Victoria by phone and video, in English, Mandarin or Cantonese. See our regional home loan pages or get a free Finance Insight.
General information only, not financial or credit advice, and not a forecast. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. Source: Cotality Home Value Index, November 2026 (results to 31 October 2026); price caps from firsthomebuyers.gov.au. Lending criteria, fees and charges apply. Credit services are provided under Connective Credit Services Pty Ltd, Australian Credit Licence 389328.
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